Kazakhstan’s Draft Constitution: Treaty Application, Special Regimes, and What Investors Should Watch

On January 31, 2026, the Constitutional Court of Kazakhstan published a full draft of a new constitution, following the September 2025 announcement of a constitutional reform initiative by the president of Kazakhstan. On February 11, 2026, the president signed a decree scheduling a nationwide referendum for March 15, 2026, to decide on the draft constitution's adoption. 

The draft constitution quietly shifts Kazakhstan's legal hierarchy from a monist to a dualist system. Where ratified treaties once clearly outranked ordinary laws, the new text proposes to channel the domestic effect of treaties through implementing legislation. If adopted, the new constitution will mark a meaningful shift for investors — from international law primacy to domestic law gatekeeping — arriving alongside a move to a unicameral parliament and a broadened menu of “special regimes” that will almost certainly diverge from the Astana International Financial Centre (AIFC) model, which has provided a special legal regime in the region. 

Summary — What Markets Should Watch 

1) The legal hierarchy shift: from treaty primacy to legislative gatekeeping 

Kazakhstan’s current constitution gives ratified international treaties precedence over domestic laws (constitution, art 4(3)). Source: Akorda (official text): Constitution of the Republic of Kazakhstan (Akorda). 

The draft constitution keeps international treaty obligations within Kazakhstan’s “law in force/current law,” but provides that their domestic operation/application is “determined by law” (Draft constitution, art 5(1) and 5(3)). Source: Constitutional Court of the Republic of Kazakhstan (official GOV.KZ publication): https://www.gov.kz/memleket/entities/ksrk/press/news/details/1152063?lang=ru  

In practice, this moves the system from one where treaties have an automatic superior status to one in which parliament and the statutes they implement can influence the effect of international commitments.  

For investors, that change elevates the importance of implementing statutes, forum selection, and enforcement mechanics in state-facing contracts. 

2) Investor‑relevant comparators: Kazakhstan’s regional peers 

Across the region, special regimes for investment and finance are almost universally statutory (set up and adjusted by ordinary laws). Kazakhstan is somewhat different in that the AIFC model is constitutionally enabled, with the detailed regime then implemented through constitutional law instruments rather than sitting purely in ordinary legislation.  

By contrast, in much of the region, these regimes are anchored primarily in ordinary statutes, which can leave them more exposed to later legislative override.  

The main drawback is hierarchy and durability risk: a later ordinary law can more readily amend, narrow, or override the regime (including incentives, eligibility, regulatory powers, or dispute resolution pathways), which can reduce predictability for long-term capital. 

Although this may soon be not only about Kazakhstan: Uzbekistan has signaled a move toward a higher order anchoring for its International Center for Digital Technologies (“Enterprise Uzbekistan”). The initiative envisages a separate jurisdiction / special legal regime framed by reference to English common law principles (or leading international financial centre standards), with disputes potentially routed to a specialized independent court, and an instruction to prepare a draft constitutional law to underpin the regime. For investors, the significance is less the label and more the direction of travel: moving from “policy by ordinary statute” toward a clearer hierarchy plus dedicated institutions.  

Does a constitutional carve out still matter if constitutions get amended often? Yes — because a constitutional statute (or constitutionally enabled regime implemented via constitutional statute) can still raise the amendment bar, clarify the regime’s priority over ordinary law, and help lock in separate institutions and procedures that provide procedural certainty. The caveat is that frequent constitutional or framework law change can dilute the signal, so markets typically look for secondary anchors — robust implementing acts, clear transitional/grandfathering clauses, and strong regulatory/judicial infrastructure — alongside the carve out. 

3) Special regimes in Kazakhstan will (and should) differ from the AIFC 

The draft constitution generalizes “special legal regimes” beyond the AIFC’s financial focus and allows tailored administrative, and potentially, judicial features for “accelerated development cities”. Each regime will need a clear founding act spelling out permitting, registries, supervising authorities, available forums, interim measures, and recognition/enforcement mechanics. Investors are expected to treat each regime as a distinct jurisdictional product with its own risk curve. 

The first practical deployment of this generalized special regime model is Alatau City (Almaty oblast), designated a city of accelerated/advanced development by Presidential Decree (Sept 26, 2025); the Government was tasked to submit a draft Constitutional Law to entrench a bespoke regulatory hierarchy and tailored rule making (with discussion of incorporating AIFC style elements alongside Special Economic Zones tooling).  

In January 2026, authorities announced the Iconic Towers mega project for Alatau’s Gate District — a ≈$800m business complex whose architectural concept is by Skidmore, Owings & Merrill, renowned for designing some of the world's famous buildings, including the Burj Khalifa, One World Trade Center, and Willis Tower. 

4) What to change now in documents and structures 

5) Expected timeline and near term catalysts 

• Q1 2026: Draft constitution and public discussion launched. 

• Feb. 11, 2026: Presidential decree sets a nationwide referendum for March 15, 2026, on adopting the new constitution. 

• July 1, 2026: New constitution goes into force (according to the published draft language). 

• 2026 (expected): After the referendum, a wave of implementing statutes (watch the “law in force” article and special regime enabling acts). 

• 2026-2027: Sequencing of zone-specific charters and procedure codes; Constitutional Court clarifications on potential issues. 

Signals from the deal economy: one pullback — and multiple push-ins 

Caution from a super major 

February 6-7, 2026, public reports indicated that Shell would pause new investments in Kazakhstan while multimillion-dollar legal disputes play out. The reports followed a London arbitration setback for Shell involving the Karachaganak oil field that could expose operators to $2 billion to $4 billion in damages. (Operations continue; new capital is on hold.) 

China doubling down 

In June 2025, Kazakhstan and Chinese companies signed 58 commercial documents worth over $24 billion; additional announcements put the running total of joint projects and investment stock substantially higher, spanning energy, infrastructure, agro‑processing, and manufacturing. 

Qatar investment grows